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S. Korea’s 2025 growth outlook at 1.9 pct due to U.S. trade policy uncertainties: AMRO

December 6, 2024

A regional macroeconomic research organization in Asia forecast on Friday that South Korea’s export-driven economy will grow 1.9 percent next year, largely due to uncertainties stemming from U.S. trade policy.

“The Korean economy is forecast to grow at 2.2 percent in 2024 before moderating to 1.9 percent in 2025, reflecting increased uncertainty in the global economic environment, especially regarding the U.S trade policy,” the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) said.

AMRO’s projection is slightly more pessimistic than those made by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), both of which have projected 2 percent growth for Asia’s fourth-largest economy.

The agency noted that the country’s export momentum is likely to slow due to the downturn in the semiconductor cycle and potential U.S. tariff increases, as previously suggested by President-elect Donald Trump.

Inflation is expected to remain stable at 1.8 percent next year, supported by steady domestic food prices and declining global energy costs, AMRO said.

The assessment was based on consultations with South Korean officials in November.

This Sept. 30, 2024, file photo shows shipping containers stacked at a port in the southeastern city of Busan. (Yonhap)
This Sept. 30, 2024, file photo shows shipping containers stacked at a port in the southeastern city of Busan. (Yonhap)